Summary
Overview
Russian political scientist Ekaterina Shulman, exiled in Berlin since 2022, discusses Putin's regime, the Ukraine invasion, her work as a professor and Russia expert, and the evolution of Russian authoritarianism. She analyzes the war's impact on Russia's political system, the limitations of military Keynesianism, and prospects for both peace negotiations and post-Putin Russia.
From Moscow to Berlin: An Exiled Scholar's Journey
Ekaterina Shulman explains her background as a legislative process expert who worked in the Russian parliament and Presidential Academy. After being labeled a foreign agent in April 2022, she fled Russia by car through Belarus to Berlin, where she continues teaching and broadcasting to Russian audiences despite being on a terrorist list. She maintains a weekly radio program that reaches Russians through VPN despite YouTube degradation efforts.
- Shulman is a Russian political scientist teaching at Free University Berlin about authoritarian decision-making and regime classification
- She worked in the Russian parliament during the Yeltsin, Putin, and Medvedev presidencies
- Declared a foreign agent by Russian Ministry of Justice in April 2022
- Fled Russia by car through Belarus to Berlin in April 2022, recording her radio show en route
- Continues weekly program 'Status' every Tuesday at 9pm Moscow time despite being in exile
" I am, according to the Russian Ministry of Justice, a foreign agent. Of course, I've been declared a foreign agent in April 2022. So like an official enemy of the state. "
" YouTube is not blocked in my unfortunate country, but it is what is called in official language degraded. That is, you can access the site, youtube.com, but it will be slow and nasty and unpleasant to use. "
The Invasion's Surprise and Systemic Failure
Shulman admits she, like many experts, did not expect the full-scale invasion because Russia's resource-based personalized autocracy was not designed for kinetic warfare. The invasion was planned as a quick operation modeled on Crimea 2014, with soldiers bringing parade uniforms expecting victory in days. The failure revealed fundamental weaknesses in the system, which had to reinvent itself on the fly, leading to catastrophic consequences including the Wagner revolt.
- Shulman did not consider full-scale invasion highly probable because Russia's system was designed for propaganda and resource monopolization, not large-scale war
- The invasion was planned as a quick special operation like Crimea, with Russian forces packed with parade uniforms expecting quick victory
- Russian authorities believed Ukrainian system was weak and would fall quickly - 'Kiev in three days' was state propaganda
- The system had to reinvent its chain of command during the war, leading to various problems including the Wagner revolt
" My logic was that scaring the world with an invasion is more to the interest of the system than actually invading. And the paradox is that like-minded experts turned out to be actually correct. The invasion was not a success. "
" The first forces that were sent into Ukraine were actually packed with their parade uniforms. That's why the Kiev in three days legend was disseminated by whom? By the state propaganda. "
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