All Podcasts / Making Sense with Sam Harris / #441 — The Threat of Civil War
Making Sense with Sam Harris
Making Sense with Sam Harris

#441 — The Threat of Civil War

October 31, 2025 • 21m

Summary

⏱️ 7 min read

Overview

Author and journalist Stephen Marsh, speaking from Canada, discusses his book 'The Next Civil War' with the host, examining America's fragmentation through hyper-partisanship, institutional collapse, and rising political violence. Marsh argues that Trump is merely a symptom of deeper systemic breakdowns including eroding social trust, extreme inequality, and demographic shifts. From Canada's perspective, America appears increasingly chaotic and unreliable, prompting serious discussions about defense strategies including potential nuclear capabilities. The conversation explores civil war risk factors, the mechanics of modern political violence, and why both left and right recognize America's constitutional order is collapsing.

Canadian Perspective on Trump's America

Marsh describes the Canadian view of America under Trump's second administration as terrifying, comparing it to a family member arriving in crisis. Over half of Canadians now consider the US an enemy, a dramatic shift from when there was essentially no border between the countries. Canada is making drastic changes to security arrangements and trade diversification in response to American chaos and unpredictability.

  • Over half of Canadians now consider the United States an enemy
  • Canada is making drastic changes to political life, security arrangements, and trade diversification due to Trump administration
  • The 51st state talk is serious, not just a troll - countries sliding into authoritarianism textbook have wars with neighbors for no good reason
  • Canada considering becoming a nuclear power and implementing 'whole society defense' strategy similar to Finland's approach with Russia
" I mean, to me, it's sort of like your big brother shows up at the door in a meth binge with a knife asking for money. I think that would be roughly the take of the Canadian public. "
" I think when you look at American polling, you see people consistently who are under the impression that their country is in collapse. Like, I certainly would never lecture Americans on the subject because I think they know all too well what's happening to them. "

America's Brand Damage and Collapsing Power

The conversation examines contrasting views of Trump's impact - supporters see strength and norm-busting progress, while critics see immense brand damage and vandalism. Marsh argues that 21st century power comes from alliance networks, trade networks, scientific communities, and soft power - all of which America is damaging. He emphasizes that both political sides recognize the constitutional order is breaking down, they're just happy when their side is temporarily winning.

  • Immense brand damage has been done to America in the last 10 months - a colossal act of vandalism
  • Power in the 21st century is alliance networks, trade networks, scientific community, and soft power - America is throwing away its advantages
  • Large number of Republicans believe 2020 election was stolen - the collapse of the United States is apparent to people on both sides
  • Trump is really just a symptom of breakdown in trusted institutions and the American dream, not the cause
" I don't think Americans need a lot of convincing that they're in a country that is not stable. I think that is that is very apparent to people on both sides. "

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