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Making Sense with Sam Harris
Making Sense with Sam Harris

#447 — The Unraveling of American Power

December 04, 2025 • 20m

Summary

⏱️ 9 min read

Overview

Peter Zeihan, geopolitical strategist specializing in demography and global forecasting, delivers a stark assessment of Trump's second term thus far. He argues that the administration's tariff policies and governance approach are causing unprecedented damage to American industrial capacity and economic stability. Zeihan analyzes the deindustrialization of high-value manufacturing, chaotic policy implementation, military actions in Latin America, and the evolving cartel landscape. His central thesis is that rather than strengthening American manufacturing and national security, current policies are creating shortages, inflation, and potentially the worst unraveling of national power since the Soviet collapse.

Election Postmortem: The Independent Voter Miscalculation

Zeihan addresses his incorrect prediction that Trump would lose the 2024 election, explaining his reasoning was based on America's true independents—the 10% who actually split tickets—having decided the last seven elections. Post-election polls showed this group did vote decisively against Trump. However, every other demographic and every state except Washington shifted substantially toward Trump, a widespread movement Zeihan hadn't anticipated. This represents a rare moment of accountability and analysis of predictive failure.

  • Zeihan's prediction was based on true independents (10% who split tickets) having decided last seven elections
  • Post-election data shows independents did vote decisively against Trump
  • Every state except Washington and every demographic shifted substantially toward Trump
  • The widespread shift across demographics was the factor Zeihan missed

Trump's Second Term Assessment: Unprecedented Damage

Zeihan provides a scathing evaluation of Trump's performance in his second term, arguing that unlike first-term presidents who deserve grace while learning, Trump should be judged more harshly given his prior experience. He contends the administration has achieved the opposite of its stated goals like reshoring manufacturing and strengthening defense, instead presiding over what he characterizes as the worst unraveling of national power since the Soviet breakdown. The economic approach combines what Zeihan describes as Zimbabwe and Argentine-style policies with French statism.

  • Zeihan distinguishes between first and second-term presidents, noting Trump should have learned from his first term
  • Stated aims like reshoring manufacturing and increasing defense position have moved in the opposite direction
  • The damage represents the worst unraveling of national power since Soviet breakdown
" I have not seen an unraveling of national power on the scale since the Soviet breakdown. "
" This is some combination of Zimbabwe, Argentine economic policy, maybe with just a dash of French statism thrown in. "

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