All Podcasts / Planet Money / How to win a penalty shootout (with game theory)
Planet Money
Planet Money

How to win a penalty shootout (with game theory)

July 03, 2026 • 17m

Summary

⏱️ 7 min read

Overview

This Planet Money episode explores how game theory has revolutionized penalty kicks in professional soccer. Through the work of economist Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, teams now use data-driven strategies and psychological preparation to gain an edge in penalty shootouts, transforming what was once viewed as pure luck into a science of unpredictability and strategic thinking.

The Paradox of Messi's Penalty Performance

The episode opens with the surprising fact that Lionel Messi, one of soccer's all-time greats, is remarkably poor at penalty kicks despite his overall excellence. This paradox introduces the central theme: penalty kicks aren't just about technical skill but involve complex game theory and strategic thinking that can confound even elite players.

  • Messi missed a penalty kick despite being one of the best soccer players of all time
  • Messi is slightly below average at penalty kicks and in the running for missing the most penalties in World Cup history
  • Penalty kicks involve game theory skills beyond just technical ball-kicking ability
" The top World Cup scorer of all time is actually a slightly below average penalty kicker. He's in the running for missing the most penalties of any player in World Cup history. "

The Mixed Strategy: Why Unpredictability Wins

Game theory expert Stefan Schmeinsky explains the concept of mixed strategies in penalty kicks, where players must sometimes shoot to their weaker side to remain unpredictable. Professional soccer players have proven remarkably adept at generating random sequences, a skill most people struggle with, making penalty kicks a perfect real-world demonstration of game theory in action.

  • Every penalty taker has a good side and bad side, but shooting only to your best side makes you predictable
  • Players must use mixed strategies, shooting unpredictably to both sides, even when one has lower success rates
  • Choosing truly random sequences is difficult for most people, but professional footballers are very good at it
" Everyone who takes a penalty has a good side and a bad side, almost everybody. And you might think that you'd always shoot to your best side, but if you do that, you're predictable. And so what you have to do is sometimes, even though your chances of scoring are lower, you actually want to shoot to your worst side. "
" Most people aren't very good at it. And that's what you have to do with penalty taking. Sometimes you have to go one way, sometimes you have to go the other way. But you have to do so in a way that's completely unpredictable. "

📚 6 more sections below

Sign up to unlock the complete summary with all insights, key points, and quotes

Listen on Apple Podcasts More Episodes from Planet Money