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Planet Money
Planet Money

Indicators of the Year, Past and Future

December 31, 2025 • 18m

Summary

⏱️ 7 min read

Overview

Planet Money and The Indicator team up for their annual 'Indicators of the Year' competition, where hosts pitch their top economic metrics of 2025. Three contenders emerge: consumer sentiment (now in its third year as a contender), tariffs reaching historic highs, and the CAPE ratio signaling potential stock market overvaluation. The episode also looks ahead to 2026, highlighting three key indicators to watch: Federal Reserve interest rates amid leadership changes, rising electricity costs driven by AI data centers, and consumer spending increasingly concentrated among the top 10% of earners.

The Battle for Indicator of the Year 2025

Planet Money hosts Kenny Malone, Greg Rosalski, and Darian Woods compete in the annual tradition of pitching their top economic indicator of 2025. Each presenter has 60 seconds to make their case before listeners vote on the winner. The competition showcases three distinct economic narratives that shaped the year, from consumer psychology to trade policy to market valuations.

  • The competition format gives each host 60 seconds or less to argue for their chosen indicator
  • Voting is left to listeners, with results revealed on The Indicator podcast on January 2nd
  • This year's contenders are consumer sentiment, tariffs, and the CAPE ratio

Kenny Malone Champions Consumer Sentiment (For the Third Time)

Kenny Malone presents consumer sentiment as the indicator of the year, noting it's won the previous two years as well. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index has dropped from around 100 in pre-pandemic times to the 50s in 2025, representing historic lows. Malone argues that how people feel about the economy matters more than objective economic data, positioning consumer sentiment as a predictive 'canary in the coal mine' for economic troubles ahead.

  • Consumer sentiment previously won Indicator of the Year for two consecutive years
  • The index dropped from around 100 pre-pandemic to the 50s in 2025, hitting historic lows
  • Americans are experiencing bad feelings about future prices, inflation, jobs, and housing
" It's what people feel about the economy. "
" Consumer sentiment is the canary in the coal mine. And it's been chirping louder and louder over the last three years. Or I guess chirping less and less is how canaries work in the coal mine. "

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