Summary
Overview
Pod Save America hosts John Favreau and Dan Pfeiffer analyze the state of the 2026 midterm elections with 25 days to go, covering Republican panic, Trump's erratic campaign focus, key Senate debates, and the Kimberly Guilfoyle influence-peddling scandal. The episode includes an interview with Florida Senate candidate Angie Nixon about her grassroots campaign against Ashley Moody.
Republican Midterm Panic and Trump's Declining Support
With 25 days until the midterms, Trump's approval ratings continue to worsen while the Democratic generic ballot lead has grown to nine points. The New York Times conducted three dozen interviews with disillusioned Trump voters in western Michigan who expressed low energy and disconnection from Trump. Meanwhile, Trump himself has been focused on hosting medal ceremonies for billionaire donors rather than addressing voter concerns about issues like the Iran war and tariffs.
- Trump's approval keeps getting worse and the Democratic lead on the generic ballot has reached nine points according to Nate Silver
- New York Times interviews with Trump voters in western Michigan revealed widespread disillusionment, with voters saying 'he's losing touch' and 'he's just not there in my head anymore'
- Trump's top two political advisors left the country to advise a Putin-aligned client in the Balkans
- Mike Johnson told Fox News if he loses his job as speaker, he would move home to start a lawn care business 'if that's what God wants'
" President Trump has been saying, vote as if I was on the ballot, and that's exactly what I'm going to do, not vote. "
" What would be the worst thing that happened if you were happy for 25 days? You're not going to be any less sad on election night if you were sad now. "
Polling Analysis and Democratic Anxiety
The hosts discuss whether polls might be wrong in Democrats' favor this time, noting that in 2025 New Jersey elections, polls dramatically overestimated Republican performance. They debate the value of 'person on the street' journalism while acknowledging that qualitative data from focus groups aligns with quantitative polling showing Trump voter disillusionment. One in four 2024 Trump voters now regret their vote according to Navigator Research.
- Nate Silver's polling average shows Democrats with a 9-point lead on the generic ballot, a new high
- In 2025, particularly in New Jersey, polls dramatically overestimated Republican vote share
- Navigator Research poll shows one in four 2024 Trump voters regret their vote
- The New York Times interviews align with focus group data showing Trump voters are disenchanted, have stopped paying attention, or view him as fading into the background
" As a mere factual and statistical possibility, it is also possible that the polls are wrong in the other direction. "
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