Summary
Overview
Jon Lovett hosts Nate Silver, Claire Malone, and Galen Druke to discuss their new podcast Still Counting, launching with Crooked Media. The conversation covers Trump's midterm strategy, Senate races (particularly Michigan), Democratic Party dynamics, candidate quality versus environment, and the mechanics of political forecasting models. They analyze whether Trump is helping or hurting Republicans, debate Abdul El-Sayed's chances in Michigan, and explore what defines effective center-left politics.
Trump's Midterm Strategy and Approval
The discussion opens with an analysis of Trump's current political standing, with approval around 39% and disapproval at 58%. The panel explores what Trump would be doing differently if he actually wanted to help Republicans win the midterms, rather than hosting conventions that make races about himself. They note his charisma deficit when not on the ballot himself and how baked-in decisions like the Iran war have created lasting damage.
- Trump's approval rating is around 39%, disapproval at 58% - historically poor for midterm success
- If Trump wanted to help Republicans win, he would end the Iran war quickly, undo remaining tariffs, and elevate other Republicans instead of himself
- Trump's worst decisions get baked in early - the Iran war being a prime example of poor planning creating a quagmire
- Trump has never particularly cared about Republicans' fate in midterms, evidenced by endorsing Ken Paxton and the Georgia runoff losses
" Oftentimes the worst decisions in a presidential term get baked in early. Look what he should do is collaborate with Elon Musk to build a time machine and undo his decision to go to war in Iran. Quagmires aren't planned, quagmires are the result of poor planning. "
" We're renaming Lake Ontario, Lake America, which sounds like an amusement park where everyone gets tetanus. "
Trump's Charisma Problem When Not On Ballot
A shorter but insightful discussion about Trump's unique political magnetism and how it doesn't transfer to other Republicans or even to elections where he's not personally running. The panel notes that while Trump has extraordinary charisma that allows him to get away with attacks others can't, this hasn't translated to midterm success or helping other candidates.
- Trump has always done poorly when he himself is not on the ballot, despite having certain charisma
- Cross-partisanship exists more in gubernatorial races than Senate races because voters correctly infer Senate votes matter for partisan control
- When JD Vance tries Trump's insult style, people find it uncomfortable, but Trump can do the 'song and dance' and it works
" Whatever you say about Trump, he does have a certain kind of charisma. Maybe we need a new word for it. People like to pretend it's not the case or to say so as some kind of failing. But of course he's extraordinarily charismatic. We know that because when you see J.D. Vance at the podium trying to insult Joe Biden, everyone's like 'ugh, this made us uncomfortable, he's a sick man, why are you saying this?' But Trump could do the song and dance and it would work. "
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