Summary
Overview
This episode covers the ongoing stalemate in Trump's war with Iran seven weeks after his initial victory declaration, the massive financial advantage Republicans hold over Democrats heading into the midterms, Democrats' redistricting victory in Virginia, and issues plaguing Trump's cabinet appointees. Mark Leibovich joins to discuss California's chaotic gubernatorial race and the upcoming White House Correspondents' Dinner where Trump will attend for the first time since 2011.
Iran War Stalemate and Trump's Deteriorating Position
Trump extended the ceasefire without a new deadline after 43 days of claiming victory, but the situation remains volatile with ship seizures continuing. The Pentagon revealed it could take six months to clear the Strait of Hormuz even after the war ends, creating a massive economic crisis. Trump is caught between wanting to appear strong and desperately wanting a deal, while Iran's hardliners sense his weakness and are making negotiations increasingly difficult.
- It's been 43 days since Trump first declared victory in Iran, now on week seven of the conflict
- Pentagon told Congress it could take six months to clear the strait from the date the war ends
- Trump extended the ceasefire without a new deadline, claiming 'total control' while ordering the Navy to shoot boats laying mines
- Administration spinning ceasefire extension as temporary mercy, giving Iranians 3-5 days to 'get their shit together'
- Europe headed towards potential jet fuel shortage, with real implications for daily life beyond gas prices
- The IRGC hardliners are now essentially running Iran with more power than the new Ayatollah
" All he can do is bomb more things...anyone dumb enough to start this war is too dumb to get out of it. "
Democrats Win Virginia Redistricting Battle
Democrats won the Virginia referendum to redraw congressional maps by three points, which will likely net them four additional House seats and create a 10-1 Democratic advantage. Despite the victory being closer than expected, it caps off a redistricting war that Trump started with Texas, with Democrats now holding a plus-one advantage nationally. Republican strategists are experiencing 'buyer's remorse' over starting the redistricting fight.
- Virginia referendum passed by 3 points, will create 10-1 Democratic split in congressional delegation
- Republican turnout was strong at 2021 levels, and independents voted against the measure by 10 points
- Asian American and Black voters turned out strongly for Democrats, likely providing the margin of victory
- NRCC chair told Axios the redistricting effort wasn't worth it, saying 'it's not for me to say because really it wasn't my decision'
- Florida is the only state left that could redraw maps, but experts think DeSantis can only gain 2 seats max without risking a 'dummy mander'
" If you are going to take on fascism, you have to be willing to fight fire with fire. Everything Democrats are doing is legal. It is a maximum use of allowable political power. "
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