Summary
Overview
This episode of Pod Save America covers the rapidly shifting political landscape ahead of the 2026 midterms. The hosts discuss stunning new polling showing Democrats leading or tied in Senate races across deep-red states like Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Kansas, with Trump's approval rating at 40% in those states. They analyze the expanding House map, Ken Paxton's campaign troubles, and the Kristi Noem luxury jet scandal. The episode features an interview with Texas gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa, who discusses her path to victory against Greg Abbott, the data center controversy, and the fight over public school vouchers.
Polling Shows Democrats Surging in Red States
New York Times/Siena polls reveal a dramatic shift in five red states Trump won by 11-16 points in 2024. Democrats now lead or are tied in every Senate race, with one in five Trump voters disapproving of his job performance. James Tallarico leads Ken Paxton 51-45 in Texas, Mary Peltola is up 50-43 in Alaska, and Sherrod Brown holds a 49-46 lead in Ohio. The polls show Trump's approval at just 40% with 56% disapproval, independents favoring Democrats by 24 points, and voters wanting candidates who will check Trump despite preferring a Republican Senate.
- Trump's approval rating at 40%, disapproval at 56% in five red states he won by 11-16 points
- One in five Trump voters now disapprove of Trump's job performance
- James Tallarico leads Ken Paxton 51-45 in Texas Senate race
- Mary Peltola leads Dan Sullivan 50-43 in Alaska
- Sherrod Brown ahead of John Husted 49-46 in Ohio
- Independents favor Democrats by 24 points overall
- Democrats have 23-point advantage on character in Texas race
- 52% think Democratic Party too far left, but only 35% say their actual Democratic Senate candidate is too far left
" Just when Democrats started letting themselves feel hope again, Republicans went ahead and unleashed their secret weapon...Trump is out campaigning. They never thought this was going to happen and it's their fault because they unleashed us. We're going to win and we're going to win big. And we're going to shove it up their ass, okay? "
Why Red States Are Moving While Blue States Stay Close
The hosts examine why races in traditionally red states are showing bigger Democratic gains than in swing states like Michigan and Maine. Demographic shifts, particularly among Latino voters in states like Texas, are driving change. However, Michigan faces challenges with Abdul El-Sayed overcoming Islamophobia and primary wounds, while Maine's Troy Jackson struggles with high unfavorables following the unusual process that made him the nominee after Plattner withdrew.
- Maine and Michigan races remain closer than red state races despite being more favorable demographically
- Latino voter shifts in Texas are a major factor in Democratic gains
- Maine is old and white, demographics more favorable to Trump
- Susan Collins historically a strong candidate and over-performer in Maine
- Troy Jackson has struggled since becoming nominee through late process change
- Abdul El-Sayed must overcome Islamophobia and lingering Democratic primary wounds
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