Summary
Overview
This episode features live panels from CrookedCon analyzing the 2025 election results and Democratic messaging strategy. The first panel brings together top pollsters and opinion researchers to dissect Democrats' strong performance in Virginia and New Jersey elections, exploring what it means for 2026 and beyond. The second segment features Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear discussing how Democrats can win in red states by focusing relentlessly on affordability and everyday needs while still standing up for core values.
2025 Election Results: What Happened and Why
Top pollsters and researchers analyze Democrats' impressive wins in Virginia and New Jersey, where they significantly outperformed expectations. The panel explores how Democrats reassembled their base coalition, with particular gains among young voters, Latino voters, and Black voters who turned out in high numbers. They discuss the combination of persuasion and turnout that drove results, with evidence showing 7-15% of Trump voters crossed over to vote Democratic in various races.
- Democrats won Virginia and New Jersey by much larger margins than expected, with Spanberger winning by 13+ points and Sherrill by 7+ points
- Democrats saw 20 points improvement with young voters in Virginia, 20 points better with Latino voters, and 11 points better with Black voters compared to 2024
- Approximately 7% of Trump voters turned out and voted for Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia
- Analysis shows the results were roughly 50-50 between turnout differential and vote switching/persuasion
" Democrats are super mad and they showed up to say how mad they are. "
" To me the real takeaway I think a lot of people on both the Democratic and Republican side had convinced themselves that Donald Trump had rewritten the rules of politics. And I was wrong. Gravity is real. "
Latino Voter Dynamics and Immigration Impact
The panel examines the significant shift in Latino voter support, noting that Democrats recovered substantial ground from 2024 losses but haven't returned to pre-2016 levels. The discussion reveals that immigration raids targeting citizens, combined with economic concerns, drove Latino voters back toward Democrats. Researchers emphasize the importance of treating Latino voters as full human beings with complex views rather than single-issue voters.
- Latino support in New Jersey returned to 2021 levels, higher than 2024 but still lower than 2016-2017
- In New Jersey, 15% of Latino Trump voters crossed over to vote for Sherrill; in New York it was 15% for Mamdani
- ICE raids have challenged fundamental views, especially because they've extended to U.S. citizens who can be legally profiled
- The 2024 debate was about border security, but now the debate involves citizens and long-time residents being targeted
" Latino voters are not extraterrestrials. They live in all the same communities and experience all the same things. It is the economy, of course it's the economy, and it's the chaos of it all and it is the extremism and the abuse of power, it's kind of everything happening all at once when it comes to Donald Trump. "
" Let's not make the mistake we've done in the past of flattening any voters down to one dimension. "
📚 6 more sections below
Sign up to unlock the complete summary with all insights, key points, and quotes
Get this summary + all future Pod Save America episodes in your inbox
100% Free • Unsubscribe Anytime
Sign up now and we'll send you the complete summary of this episode, plus get notified when new Pod Save America episodes are released—delivered straight to your inbox within minutes.