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What the Final Polls Tell Us

November 01, 2026 • 1h 1m

Summary

⏱️ 8 min read

Overview

Tommy Vietor sits down with CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten just two days before the 2026 midterms to break down the polling landscape, analyze competitive races across the country, and discuss the challenges facing pollsters in the Trump era. They examine everything from response bias concerns to specific Senate and House races, while Harry shares his trademark mix of statistical rigor and accessible humor about what the data is really telling us.

The Historical Context and Trump's Approval Problem

Harry sets the table by explaining the historical disadvantage facing parties in power during midterms. With only three exceptions since the Civil War where the White House party didn't lose House seats, and Trump's approval rating hovering at historically terrible levels comparable only to Truman in 1946 and Bush in 2006, the fundamentals suggest Democrats could see significant gains. Both those historical comparisons resulted in the opposition party winning well over 230 House seats and controlling both chambers.

  • Only three midterm elections since the Civil War saw the White House party not lose House seats: FDR in 1934, Clinton in 1998, and Bush in 2002 post-9/11
  • Trump has a sub-minus 15 point net approval rating, matching only Truman (1946) and Bush (2006), both of which resulted in shellackings
  • In both historical comparisons, the opposition party ended up with north of 230 House seats
" I believe three midterm elections since the Civil War in which the White House party did not, in fact, lose seats in the House. 34 with FDR was one, Bill Clinton, 1998 is two, and George W. Bush in 2002 coming off a 9-11 is three. "

Polling Anxiety: The Response Bias Problem

Tommy voices his biggest anxiety about potential polling errors and response bias, citing concerning evidence from recent polls in Minnesota and Kansas where pollsters struggled to reach Republican voters. Harry acknowledges this is a legitimate concern, noting that in Trump-era close Senate races, polling has underestimated Republican strength by an average of four points. However, he points out that in 2022, Democrats actually overperformed their polling in every close Senate race, suggesting pollsters may have corrected some of their methodology issues.

  • The New York Times poll showing Democrats up 14 points in Minnesota may be a canary in the coal mine, similar to the 2024 Seltzer Iowa poll that warned of white working-class polling difficulties
  • In Trump-era close Senate races, polling has underestimated Republican strength by four points on average
  • In 2022, Democrats outperformed their final polling in 100% of close Senate races, suggesting pollster adjustments may be working
" We know that in the Trump era, especially in states that Donald Trump won in the prior presidential election, there has been an underestimation of Republican strength. It's been four points on average in close Senate races. "

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