Summary
Overview
This episode explores swing states in U.S. presidential elections, explaining how they work, why they matter, and which states are considered battlegrounds in 2020. Josh and Chuck discuss the Electoral College system, the history of red and blue state designations, how swing states have shifted over time, and the importance of voting. They also cover the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact as a potential reform to the current system.
Understanding Swing States and the Electoral College
The hosts define swing states as closely divided states that could vote either way in presidential elections and potentially decide the presidency. They explain the Electoral College system, where voters actually elect party electors rather than directly choosing the president. This indirect system means a candidate can win the presidency without winning the popular vote, which has happened four times in U.S. history, most recently in 2000 and 2016.
- Swing states are states so closely divided politically they could go either way and make or break a presidential campaign
- 75% or more of presidential campaign spending occurs in swing states
- Under the Electoral College, voters elect party electors who then vote for president, not the president directly
- A candidate can win the Electoral College without winning the popular vote - this has happened four times, all with Republican candidates
- Most states use winner-take-all for electoral votes; only Maine and Nebraska use a district system
- The goal is 270 electoral votes to win the presidency
" It is a state where there are enough people in that state who can be persuaded to change who they vote for that it can make a state go one way or the other. We're talking down to the thousands or even hundreds of votes. "
" It is very surprising that there's undecided voters. And I remember from our election polling episode, we were saying one of the reasons that the state polling was so far off is because there were so many undecided voters at the end of 2016. "
The Red State, Blue State Phenomenon
The hosts trace the surprising history of how Democrats became associated with blue and Republicans with red, explaining that this wasn't standardized until 2000. They discuss how these color designations have evolved into cultural shorthand that reinforces political tribalism and division, making it easy to categorize entire communities by political affiliation while ignoring the nuance and diversity within states.
- In the mid-1970s, Democrats were red and Republicans were blue when color TV election maps debuted
- NBC introduced the first color election map in 1976 with blue for Republicans and red for Democrats
- The current red/blue association wasn't locked in until the 2000 election, credited to Tim Russert
- Red and blue designations have become cultural shorthand for lifestyle and community identity, not just voting patterns
" Emily and I have a lot of conversations about the lack of nuance in today's world, and I think that's one of the biggest problems we have going on right now. Nuance has been lost and everything is carved very much into red and blue and black and white. "
" It is that when you lose nuance, a lot of stuff goes out the window with it. "
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