Summary
Overview
This episode of TED Explains the World features political scientist Ian Bremmer analyzing two major ongoing conflicts: the war between the United States and Iran, now in its sixth month, and the Russia-Ukraine war. Bremmer discusses why these conflicts persist, the strategies and miscalculations of world leaders, the economic costs to Americans and the global economy, and potential paths forward for both situations.
The Ongoing US-Iran Conflict: A War of Leverage
Ian Bremmer explains that the US-Iran conflict continues because President Trump and Iranian military leadership fundamentally disagree about their respective leverage. Unlike Trump's approach with China where he backed down from escalation, both sides in the Iran conflict believe they can outlast the other. Trump thinks continued strikes will force Iranian capitulation, while Iran believes controlling the Strait of Hormuz gives them the upper hand until the US grants them that control and associated revenues.
- A memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran fell apart within weeks due to fundamental disagreements about leverage
- Trump and Iranian military leadership each believe they can force the other to capitulate
- Unlike with China, Trump has not backed away from confrontation with Iran despite costs
- Iranians have responded by blocking the Strait of Hormuz and attacking Gulf infrastructure and American bases
- Trump believes he can continue striking Iran until they abandon their demand for control of the Strait
" President Trump and the Iranian military leadership really fundamentally disagree about how much leverage they each have over the outcome. "
" President Trump's perspective is, yeah, they may have been able to disrupt the straight, but I can continue to blow these guys up. And ultimately, they're going to have to capitulate. "
Restraint Amid Conflict: Why the War Hasn't Escalated to Total War
Despite ongoing hostilities, both the US and Iran continue to exercise significant restraint. The Americans have avoided targeting Iranian leadership or critical infrastructure beyond limited strikes, while Iran has responded in measured, tit-for-tat ways. This restraint stems from Trump's recognition that the damage Iran could inflict on American soldiers and Gulf allies would be unacceptable, even as he publicly threatens total destruction.
- Despite the war continuing, Americans are not targeting Iranian leadership or most infrastructure
- Most US strikes have focused on military targets rather than civilian infrastructure
- Iranians have responded in tit-for-tat fashion, matching American strikes proportionally
- Trump's restraint comes from knowing Iran could cause unacceptable casualties to US soldiers and damage to Gulf allies
- This uncomfortable middle ground prevents both stability and total war
" The damage that the Iranians can do in response to the United States actually following through on the big threats that he has made are unacceptable. Unacceptable in terms of the casualties to American soldiers and military capabilities and unacceptable to American allies in the region across the Gulf. "
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