Summary
Overview
In this episode of The Daily, host Michael Barbaro convenes the first general election midterm roundtable with political correspondents Shane Goldmacher, Maggie Haberman, and Nate Cohn to analyze a groundbreaking New York Times poll showing Democrats with a commanding 9-point lead. The discussion explores how this advantage could translate into Democratic control of both chambers of Congress, despite significant obstacles including a massive Republican financial advantage exceeding $600 million, Trump's determination to make the election about himself, and the rise of Democratic Socialist candidates that Republicans are weaponizing in their messaging.
A Wave Election in the Making: Democrats' 9-Point Advantage
The New York Times has released a major poll showing Democrats leading Republicans by nearly 9 points in congressional races, placing this election in "wave territory" comparable to 2018. This margin could enable Democrats to not only take the House but also put several red-state Senate seats into play. The poll reveals devastating numbers for Trump and Republicans across multiple dimensions, with voters viewing the GOP as more elitist, extreme, and corrupt, while Trump scores dismally on cost of living issues at just 28% support on voters' top concern.
- Democrats lead Republicans by nearly 9 points in congressional races, matching the 2018 wave election margin
- This advantage is larger than other recent wave elections like 1994, 2006, or 2010
- Democrats are favored to take the House and have a real chance at the Senate despite it being an uphill climb
- Trump's approval on cost of living, the most important issue to voters, sits at just 28%
" Top line, we found Democrats well positioned to make major gains this fall. They led Republicans by nearly nine points in the race for Congress, and that's wave territory, which is the kind of election where one party sweeps the other party out of the most competitive states and districts. "
" Trump was at, I think, 28% support on the most important issue for most voters. Like if you had to pick an issue to be really bad on, don't pick the one people care most about. "
Trump's Albatross Effect: Making the Midterms All About Himself
Despite being clearly unpopular and dragging down his party, President Trump insists on making the midterm elections entirely about himself. At what was billed as a historic "midterm convention," Trump asked supporters to pretend he was on the ballot and even had them pledge loyalty directly to him rather than to the country or party. This counterintuitive strategy reflects both Trump's belief that his base turnout is essential and the reality that Republicans have few other cards to play, though it risks further alienating independent voters.
- Trump explicitly asked voters to 'pretend I'm on the ballot because in a way I am on the ballot' at a midterm convention
- The president had supporters pledge loyalty directly to him, not the country or Republican Party
- Trump's strategy aims to turn out low-propensity voters who only vote when he's on the ballot
- When Democrats are up 8.5 points nationally, tied races are in districts Trump won by 10 points
" So on Election Day, November 3rd, you got to do me a favor. You got to get out and vote and you're going to pretend I'm on the ballot because in a way I am on the ballot. "
" The mandate was not go take us to war, even though you said you wouldn't, and do a lot of legacy projects for yourself in the form of physical structures. And oh, and P.S. make a lot of money for yourself and your family. Voters can see it. "
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