Summary
Overview
In this episode of The Daily, Chief Political Analyst Nate Cohn discusses a major New York Times poll revealing President Trump's approval rating has hit record lows at 37%, with particularly dramatic declines among young and non-white voters who helped elect him in 2024. The poll shows Democrats now leading by 10 points for the midterm elections, positioning them to potentially retake both the House and Senate. Despite Trump's unchecked power within the Republican Party, his national support is crumbling due to unpopular positions on the cost of living, the Iran conflict, and other key issues.
Trump's Approval Rating Hits Historic Lows
The poll reveals President Trump's approval rating has fallen to 37%, the lowest of his entire presidency dating back to 2017. This shatters the long-held belief that Trump had a solid floor of support around 38%. The decline represents a four-point drop since January and suggests Trump may continue falling further, with even lower ratings on specific issues like Iran and the cost of living.
- Trump's approval rating at 37% is the lowest in any Times poll throughout his entire political life
- The average of all polls shows Trump's approval is lower than at any point since he first took office in 2017
- The historic 'floor' of Trump's support was around 38%, which he appears to have broken through
- Trump's approval on specific issues is even worse: 28% on cost of living, 30% on attacking Iran, 31% on Israeli-Palestinian conflict
" For as long as Donald Trump has been president, it's been commonly said that there is a high floor on his support. The idea is that Donald Trump can do all kinds of things that might ordinarily hurt a president politically, but that his base of support is so strong that his ratings can never fall that low. "
" On the cost of living, he has a 28% approval rating. Only 30% approve of his decision to go attack Iran. Even a modest number of the people who still approve of the president's performance overall are skeptical of what he's done on these two central issues. "
Collapse of Trump's Coalition Among Young and Non-White Voters
The poll reveals a stunning reversal among the voters who helped Trump win in 2024. Young voters aged 18-29 now have only a 19% approval rating of Trump, down from over 40% support in 2024. Hispanic voters show similar dramatic declines, with only 20% approval. This isn't just a return to 2020 levels—these voters have swung even further left than they were when Trump lost his first term.
- Trump's approval among 18-29 year olds has plummeted to 19%, roughly half of the 40%+ who voted for him in 2024
- Hispanic voter approval of Trump is at just 20%, down from 40-45% support in 2024
- These declines extend deep into traditional Republican support among groups that usually have 30-40% willing to support Republican candidates
- High prices, the Iran war, and immigration policy excesses are driving these voters away from Trump
" Only what was 18 months ago, the president won more than 40 percent and perhaps more than 45 percent of Hispanic voters and 18 to 29 year olds. In our poll today, the president's approval rating among 18 to 29 year olds is down to 19 percent. "
" If you're 26 years old today, you've spent almost your entire life in a post 9-11 world where the United States has been engaged in military conflicts abroad. And one of the most important reasons why you might have supported Donald Trump in 2024 was because he promised to keep the U.S. out of war. And now the United States is entangled in the Middle East yet again. "
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