The News Agents
The News Agents

Election Special: Is it change or die for Labour?

May 08, 2026

Summary

⏱️ 11 min read

Overview

The 2025 UK local elections delivered catastrophic results for Labour, with the party losing hundreds of seats to Reform UK and the Greens in what observers described as less of an election and more of an 'arson attack' on the political establishment. Reform UK emerged as the clear winner with nearly 600 gains, becoming a truly national force for the first time. Labour lost control of councils they'd held for 50 years, bleeding support in both directions - to Reform in the north and Midlands, and to the Greens in urban areas. Despite calls for his resignation, Keir Starmer insisted he would lead Labour into the next election, though his despised status among voters left his position deeply vulnerable.

Labour's Catastrophic Night and the End of Two-Party Politics

Labour faced an unprecedented electoral disaster, losing approximately 50% of the seats they were defending and being wiped out in councils they'd controlled for decades. The projected national share showed Reform on 26%, with Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dems, and Greens all clustered between 16-19%, signaling the definitive end of two-party politics in Britain. Unlike traditional midterm losses to the main opposition, Labour was hemorrhaging support in multiple directions simultaneously, making this qualitatively different from even Jeremy Corbyn's worst years.

  • Labour down 400 seats at time of recording, losing 50% of all council seats they were defending
  • Reform gained nearly 600 seats from a standing start, establishing themselves as a truly national party
  • Labour wiped out in northern councils they'd controlled for 50+ years, losing ground to both Reform and Greens
  • Projected national share: Reform 26%, Labour 19%, Conservatives 19%, Lib Dems 18%, Greens 16%
  • Some areas saw 50-point swings from Labour to Reform, particularly in Brexit-voting heartlands
" It does strike me that this wasn't an election in the traditional sense of the word. It was more of an arson attack. "
" We are now a country that believes it's better the devil you don't know than the one you do. "
" Keir Starmer, for whatever reason, is despised by the public of this country, by much of the population. He is despised. And that is a really terrible place for a sitting prime minister to be. "

Wales Catastrophe and Scotland Results

Wales delivered potentially the most shocking results of the night, with First Minister Eluned Morgan likely to lose her seat - making her the first head of government in Britain to lose their seat at a parliamentary election. Labour faced being reduced to approximately 10% of Senate seats (10 of 96) in a country they had won every election in for a century, representing a complete collapse of their traditional stronghold.

  • Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan very likely to lose her seat - unprecedented for UK head of government
  • Labour may be reduced to 10 out of 96 seats in Welsh Senate - around 10% in a century-long stronghold
  • Complete collapse in a country Labour has dominated for 100 years
  • Scotland results suggested Labour might not do as badly as predictions indicated

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