Summary
Overview
In this final episode examining the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, Gordon Carrera, David McCloskey, and guest Richard Kerbaj explore how the partnership has evolved in the Trump era and whether it can survive current political tensions. They discuss the alliance's increasing public profile, particularly around the China threat, and analyze how Donald Trump's second presidency is creating new strains between the partners, from threatened trade wars with Canada to controversial FBI leadership. Despite these challenges, they conclude the operational intelligence relationships remain strong, though the alliance may become less central as partners diversify their relationships.
The Five Eyes Goes Public: Confronting the China Threat
The Five Eyes alliance has dramatically shifted from its decades of secrecy to a more public posture, particularly around the existential threat posed by China. In 2022, the FBI and MI5 leaders appeared together publicly for the first time, followed by a historic 2023 conference at Stanford where all five security agency heads stood on stage together. This represented a fundamental change in how the alliance operates, moving from purely behind-the-scenes cooperation to strategic public messaging designed to raise awareness about Chinese espionage and intellectual property theft.
- 2022 marked the first time FBI and MI5 directors stood side by side publicly to discuss the China threat, a historic moment after decades of Cold War and counterterrorism cooperation
- The 2023 Stanford conference brought all five intelligence agency leaders together publicly for the first time in the alliance's history
- The public stance was partly undermined by timing, coming just after October 7th Hamas attacks which overshadowed their China-focused message
- Different Five Eyes members took varying times to feel comfortable going public, with some more cautious about attribution due to trade ties with China
" Never before had those two leaders stood side by side so publicly to discuss an existential crisis. And that was China. "
" The only way you can operate as an intelligence agency is if you have a public vote. You need the public to be on side, to agree with what you're doing. "
Trump 1.0 vs 2.0: Different Challenges for the Alliance
The first Trump presidency created tensions when he accused GCHQ of wiretapping Trump Tower, forcing the UK agency to issue a rare public denial. However, operational relationships remained intact, and the administration conducted significant counterterrorism operations. Trump's second term presents different challenges, with a more unpredictable foreign policy focused on the Western hemisphere, threats against Canada, and concerns about whether sensitive intelligence would be protected by controversial appointees like Tulsi Gabbard and Kash Patel.
- Trump accused GCHQ of bugging his telephones during the 2016 campaign, forcing the agency to issue an unusual public denial
- The NSA director defended GCHQ to Trump, telling him 'this will never happen, this has never happened, this is BS'
- Despite political noise, Trump 1.0 conducted major successful operations including taking out the ISIS caliphate, al-Baghdadi, and Suleimani
- Trump 2.0 is seen as more unpredictable with a hemispheric focus on issues like Greenland and Venezuela, raising concerns among traditional allies
" It's hurting the United States the most, I think, because if you think about the impact it's had on the other four partners, look at the latest case in Iran. The Brits were unwilling to get involved. "
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