Summary
Overview
Gordon Carrera and David McCloskey examine Russia's dramatic escalation of covert operations across Europe, including drone attacks, sabotage plots, and assassination attempts. They analyze recent incidents in Germany, Poland, and the US, exploring how Russia's desperation in Ukraine is driving increasingly dangerous provocations that risk miscalculation and potential conflict with NATO. The discussion reveals a fragmented Russian intelligence landscape where semi-autonomous groups compete for Kremlin attention through audacious operations.
Russian Drone Strike Near NATO Territory
A Russian Geran-5 jet-powered drone struck a passenger train in Ukraine just two kilometers from the Polish border on September 13th. The incident is particularly notable because former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and former CIA Director David Petraeus were traveling on that route that day. While it's unlikely Russia intended to kill these officials, the strike demonstrates Russia's willingness to operate dangerously close to NATO territory and sends a clear warning about Western involvement in Ukraine.
- Russian drone strikes passenger train two kilometers from Polish NATO territory
- Boris Johnson and former CIA Director David Petraeus were on the route that day
- Part of new Russian tactic of targeting trains carrying supplies to Ukraine
" I think that would have been unwise, which is a kind of very David Petraeus comment to try and kill a former CIA director. "
Failed Drone Sabotage at German Airport
On August 4th, a bus driver discovered an armed drone at Leipzig Halle Airport carrying 600-800 grams of Semtex explosives. The drone had struck a Ukrainian Antonov cargo aircraft's wing tank containing 25,000 liters of kerosene but failed to detonate. German investigators traced the operation to Russian military intelligence (GRU), finding DNA evidence linking it to a Belarusian asset named Andrei and a Russian handler named Oleg. Had it detonated, the explosion would have been catastrophic, destroying not only the aircraft but a significant portion of the airport itself.
- Drone found with Semtex explosives attached to it near Ukrainian cargo plane at German airport
- Aircraft contained 25,000 liters of kerosene; detonation would have destroyed significant part of airport
- Drone used mobile phone router and SIM cards to avoid detection, allowing remote control from great distances
- DNA evidence on discarded glove linked operation to Belarusian asset working for Russian GRU
" Had the drone detonated, the explosion would have been absolutely massive and it not only would have destroyed the aircraft, but German security officials afterwards said this would have destroyed a significant piece of the airport itself. "
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