Summary
Overview
Richard Osman and Marina Hyde explore the explosive growth of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, which turned over approximately $63 billion last year. They discuss how these companies are positioning themselves to revolutionize entertainment funding through live, always-on programming funded by betting. The episode also examines Britney Spears' catalogue sale and the broader shift toward catalogue music dominating over new releases, particularly among younger generations.
Prediction Markets: The Next Big Thing in Entertainment
Richard introduces Kalshi and Polymarket, two prediction market companies that are transforming how people engage with live events. These platforms allow users to bet on everything from Oscar winners to whether Jesus will return before 2027, currently valued at 4%. While technically classified as prediction markets rather than betting companies in the US, they're finding ways to embed themselves in entertainment, news, and sports. The Golden Globes partnership with Polymarket marked an early attempt at integration, though it was somewhat clumsy in execution.
- Kalshi and Polymarket turned over approximately $63 billion last year, with $12 billion in December alone
- These companies are classified as prediction markets, not betting companies, allowing them to avoid gambling regulations
- You can bet on bizarre things like whether Jesus will return before 2027 (currently 4% chance) or if the US will reveal aliens (10%)
- Polymarket paid to be featured at the Golden Globes, providing odds on award winners
" They are both companies which could save our industry or doom humanity. "
" You can bet on will Jesus Christ return before 2027, there is what sort of chance do you think there is of that happening? At time of recording, four percent. "
How Prediction Markets Operate Outside Regulation
The conversation reveals how prediction markets exploit regulatory loopholes by positioning themselves as financial services companies rather than gambling operations. This allows them to avoid the strict oversight that traditional betting companies like FanDuel and DraftKings face. Examples of insider trading on these platforms are rampant, including someone making eight correct predictions about Super Bowl performers and a $400,000 bet placed just before a major political capture.
- Sports betting is only legal in 20 US states, but prediction markets operate in all states by being classified as derivatives companies
- Someone made eight out of eight correct predictions on Super Bowl performers after opening an account, suggesting insider knowledge
- A bet worth $400,000 was placed predicting Maduro's capture the day before it happened
- Allegations that Trump's press secretary Caroline Levitt looked at her watch and ended a briefing right before the 65-minute mark that someone had bet on
" Obviously that person knows what's happening and also in the derivatives market you don't actually get prosecuted for insider trading, you are allowed to use personal knowledge that you have. "
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