Summary
Overview
This episode covers the dramatic climax of the Iranian Revolution in late 1978 and early 1979, from the Shah's departure to Ayatollah Khomeini's triumphant return from exile in Paris. As Iran descends into revolutionary chaos, the United States struggles to formulate a coherent response, while President Jimmy Carter faces mounting political challenges at home from oil shortages and inflation. The episode illustrates how religious fervor, political miscalculation, and economic crisis converged to transform the Middle East and humiliate American power.
The Shah's Final Days and American Indecision
As revolutionary fervor intensified in Iran during autumn 1978, the Shah proved unable to decisively suppress demonstrations or meaningfully reform, partly due to his hidden leukemia diagnosis. The Americans, divided between Secretary of State Cyrus Vance's cautious approach and National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski's hawkishness, failed to develop a coherent strategy. Ambassador Sullivan urged reaching out to Khomeini in Paris, but Carter dismissed the Ayatollah as 'nutty,' missing a crucial diplomatic opportunity that Sullivan believed was an irretrievable mistake.
- Since the Cinema Rex fire in August 1978, Iran has been caught in an escalating cycle of demonstrations, riots, and repression
- The Shah has conspicuously failed to follow a strong line, neither appeasing crowds nor decisively cracking down, partly due to his undisclosed leukemia
- A general reportedly fell to the ground in tears, begging the Shah to give the green light to clear the streets
- On November 5th, the Shah apologized on TV for past oppression and corruption, but by then it was too little, too late
- Carter and his team struggled to understand the theological nature of the opposition, focusing instead on secular political solutions
- Brzezinski and Vance engaged in turf wars over foreign policy, with no clear strategy emerging
" I cannot repeat, cannot understand the rationale. I'm going to say it right now. Ambassador Sullivan was undoubtedly right. I think it is a colossal mistake from Jimmy Carter not to have sent an emissary to see Khomeini. "
Khomeini's Strategic Move to Paris
After being expelled from Iraq by Saddam Hussein in September 1978, Khomeini made a calculated decision to relocate to Paris rather than another Middle Eastern country. This seemingly paradoxical move to the West proved brilliant, as it gave him unprecedented access to international media while allowing him to maintain his image as an austere religious figure. In his suburb of Neuphle-le-Château, Khomeini gave 130 interviews in just weeks, carefully crafting different messages for Western and Iranian audiences.
- Saddam Hussein kicked Khomeini out of Iraq in September 1978, as Ba'athists were secularists who didn't want this 'mad bloke' there
- Khomeini's acolytes suggested going to the West where he'd have complete freedom and access to world's press
- On October 6, 1978, Khomeini flew to Paris and settled in Neuphle-le-Château
- To European media, he seemed like someone arriving 'in a time machine from the Middle Ages' with his massive beard and black robes
- Khomeini gave 130 separate interviews to world's press in just a few weeks in Paris
" When the Ayatollah comes in, he may well provide a desperately needed model of humane governance for a third world country. "
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