The Rest Is Politics: US
The Rest Is Politics: US

170. Trump Backs Down on Iran Threats - What Next?

March 23, 2026 • 43m

Summary

⏱️ 10 min read

Overview

Anthony Scaramucci and Katty Kay analyze Trump's decision to postpone his threatened strikes on Iranian power plants after a 48-hour deadline, despite Iran denying that any productive talks occurred. They discuss the challenges of de-escalation, the attack on Diego Garcia military base, and Trump's unpredictable decision-making as the conflict enters a critical phase with no clear exit strategy.

Trump's Phantom Iran Negotiations and Market Manipulation

Trump announced a postponement of strikes on Iranian energy facilities, claiming productive talks led to the delay. Iran immediately contradicted this, stating no such talks occurred. The hosts suggest Trump may be manipulating markets, noting his "trading the market" behavior while showing his hand in international affairs. They discuss how Trump put out an all-caps Truth Social post with spelling errors that the White House later corrected, undermining the credibility of his claims.

  • Trump postponed threatened strikes on Iranian power plants after claiming productive talks that Iran says never happened
  • Trump's Truth Social post contained spelling and grammar errors that the White House had to clean up in their official version
  • Regional talks are occurring through Qataris, Omanis, and Turks, but no direct US-Iran conversations as Trump suggested
  • Trump may be manipulating markets by creating uncertainty then providing relief
" There's two ways to spell which, Katty. There's W-I-T-C-H and then there's W-H-I-C-H. "
" Did you get short the market on Saturday, long the market last night? I think you trade the market and, of course, in the meantime, you show everybody your hand, which is maybe not the best way to conduct global affairs. "

The Dangers of Deadlines and Leverage in Foreign Policy

The hosts examine Trump's tendency to impose arbitrary deadlines as a negotiating tactic, which he views as maximizing leverage. White House advisors reportedly warned against setting time frames because they create red lines that are difficult to walk back. The 48-hour ultimatum caused market panic before Trump's reversal, illustrating how his approach to leverage backfired and limited his options for de-escalation.

  • Trump likes deadlines because he thinks they maximize leverage, like a mafia-style intimidation tactic
  • White House advisors warned Trump not to put timetables on threats because they create problematic red lines
  • The conflict has shifted from targeting Iran's nuclear program to preventing oil prices from reaching $150 per barrel
  • Regional allies don't want America to leave Iran wounded and capable of reconstituting itself
" Part of what Trump likes, he has this kind of feeling that he has the superpower of leverage. The way if you were in the mafia from the movies, the way you maximize your leverage is by saying, if you don't do this, I'm going to do this to you. And I'm going to put a time frame on this. "
" This has gone from being a battle, a war to find uranium, to being a war to stop oil prices going to $150 a barrel. "

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