Summary
Overview
Former diplomat Richard Haass joins Anthony Scaramucci to analyze the Trump administration's naval blockade strategy against Iran, the stalled nuclear negotiations, and the surprising political fallout from President Trump's attacks on Pope Leo XIV. Haass argues the Iran war was ill-advised from the start, that economic pressure would have been more effective than military action, and that the U.S. is "so much worse off" than before the conflict began. The conversation also explores Trump's strategic use of religious controversy to manipulate his Catholic subordinates, including VP Vance and Secretary of State Rubio.
The Naval Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
Richard Haass explains his proposal for a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that Iran should not be allowed to selectively control who uses the waterway while profiting from oil exports. He advocates for a policy of "open for all or closed to all," using the blockade as leverage to bring Iran to the negotiating table while also incentivizing countries like China to pressure Tehran. Haass emphasizes this should be paired with diplomatic initiatives to create a new governance structure for the strait.
- Haass proposes the Strait must be "open for all or closed to all" - Iran cannot selectively control access while exporting its own oil
- The blockade would be conducted in the Gulf of Oman, about 200 miles across, using aircraft and ships rather than close to Iran where they have more military options
- Strategy aims to incentivize China, India, Pakistan, and Turkey to pressure Iran by threatening their own oil supplies
- Haass advocates pairing the blockade with diplomatic initiatives to negotiate new governance for the strait
" I find it preposterous that Iran gets to decide who goes through the Strait, who doesn't. And here we are trying to pressure them to essentially compromise at the negotiating table. In the meantime, they're banking billions. "
" The state's not Iran's to close, or it's not for Iran to say who can use it. So either everybody gets to use it or nobody gets to use it, including Iran. "
China's Role and International Diplomacy
Haass addresses concerns about how China might respond to a naval blockade, emphasizing the importance of consultation and explaining that China has strong incentives to keep the strait open. He criticizes the administration for potentially failing to consult allies beforehand and argues this should have been a multilateral effort involving Europeans, Japanese, and Koreans rather than a unilateral U.S. action.
- The U.S.-China relationship is "arguably the most important relationship in the world at this time in history" and avoiding crisis with China should be a priority
- China has real incentives to open the strait and the blockade is not designed as an anti-China measure
- Haass would have consulted with all affected countries beforehand, sending ambassadors to explain the strategy and get them to lean on Iran
- The blockade should involve Europeans, Japanese, Koreans and other oil-dependent nations rather than being solely a U.S.-Iran confrontation
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