Summary
Overview
In this wide-ranging episode, Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell tackle escalating tensions between Japan and China over Taiwan, discuss Chile's political pendulum swing, examine Israel-Palestine developments, debate the BBC's impartiality crisis, and clash over lowering the voting age. They analyze how democracies worldwide are grappling with authoritarianism, fake news, and the rehabilitation of controversial historical figures.
Japan-China Crisis Over Taiwan
Japan's new Prime Minister Takaichi has triggered a major diplomatic crisis with China by suggesting Japanese self-defense forces could deploy if a Taiwan conflict poses an existential threat to Japan. This has set off massive alarm bells in Beijing given Japan's colonial history in Taiwan and the technical language around Japanese military deployments. China responded with threats of 'crushing defeat,' military exercises around disputed islands, and warnings to tourists about safety in Japan, demonstrating how quickly rhetoric can escalate between these historical adversaries.
- Takaichi stated Taiwan contingency has become so serious Japan must anticipate worst case scenario, indicating self-defense forces could deploy
- China views this as massively escalating given Japan's colonial occupation of Taiwan from 1897 through WWII
- Chinese consul general threatened Takaichi should have had her head cut off for the comments
- China sent Coast Guard ships through disputed islands and flew military drones as show of force
- Trump's tariff policy has weakened Japan's economy, undermining the alliance against China
- China is using tourism as weapon, warning citizens Japan isn't safe, which will impact economy significantly
" Japan occupied and invaded Taiwan in 1897, was the colonial government of Taiwan for kind of 50 years through the end of the Second World War, committed unbelievable atrocities in Manchuria and northeast China. How dare this country challenge the legal status of Taiwan and start saying they're going to deploy Japanese troops to fight China for the independence of Taiwan. "
" Trump has completely betrayed her because what Trump has done to Japan and to Vietnam and to India is to weaken all America's allies against China through his tariff and trade policy. "
China's Military Purges and Taiwan Invasion Readiness
Xi Jinping has conducted another major purge of senior Chinese military figures after earlier corruption-focused removals, with key officers disappearing from public military events. American analysts debate whether this corruption and demoralization makes China's military too weak to invade Taiwan by 2027, or whether the purges are creating a more nationalistic, risk-taking officer corps that's actually more likely to attempt invasion.
- Big problems between Xi Jinping and army running for three to four years, initially around corruption
- American analysts suggested PLA too corrupt and demoralized to invade Taiwan successfully
- Xi appeared to have gotten through corruption issues and was building toward stronger military position by 2027
- New purges happening now with senior figures disappearing from military events
- Unclear whether purges produce weaker military or more nationalistic officer corps willing to take risks on Taiwan
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