Summary
Overview
Ten years after the Brexit referendum, this episode examines the economic and political damage from leaving the EU, finding Britain 6-8% poorer with lower investment and productivity. The hosts explore how Brexit's architects like Johnson, Gove, and Farage have escaped accountability while divisive populist politics continues to thrive. The discussion extends to far-right movements across Europe, Russian interference in UK politics, and concludes with analysis of a potential US-Iran deal that could reopen the Straits of Hormuz.
Brexit at Ten Years: The Damage Assessment
A decade after the Brexit vote, the economic verdict is clear and damaging. Britain's economy is 6-8% smaller than it would have been, with investment down 12-18% and productivity down 3-4%. The promises of Singapore-on-Thames deregulation and global Britain trade deals have failed to materialize, partly because the British public never wanted radical deregulation and partly because global circumstances changed dramatically with increased US-China tensions and the Ukraine war.
- Brexit has resulted in an economy 6-8% smaller than it would have been, with investment 12-18% lower and productivity 3-4% lower
- The two main Brexit arguments were Singapore-on-Thames deregulation and Global Britain trade deals, but neither materialized
- Britain hasn't deregulated or cut taxes; corporation tax has actually gone up because the country is more social democratic than Brexiteers acknowledged
- The global Britain argument collapsed as geopolitical realities showed Britain needs to be closer to Europe for security, economy, and AI development
" Never have so few done so much damage to so many with so little ability to execute what they lied about. Where are the peons of praise to Brexit from Johnson, Gove, Farage, Cummings and their accomplices for the land of milk and honey they told us it would deliver? They are the guilty men and should hang their heads in shame. It has all proved to be a con. "
" Would we have won without immigration? No. Would we have won without £350 million for the NHS? No. Would we have won by spending our time talking about trade in the single market? No way. "
Far-Right Resurgence and Russian Interference
The divisive populist politics that fueled Brexit continues to thrive across Europe and Britain. Evidence emerged that arson attacks on Keir Starmer's home were organized by Moscow and backed by British far-right figures. In Belfast, a stabbing by an asylum seeker was weaponized into riots and house-to-house immigrant hunts. The normal political response of condemning violence has been replaced by far-right voices saying such events are inevitable unless governments act on their agenda.
- Arson attacks on Keir Starmer's home and car were organized by Russia and backed by far-right groups in the UK
- A stabbing in Belfast was immediately whipped up into riots and house-to-house hunts for immigrants
- Tommy Robinson ventilated conspiracy theories that Keir Starmer was involved with Ukrainian rent boys, even posting fake pictures
- Nigel Farage did not condemn Belfast violence, instead saying 'this is going to happen unless you deal with it'
" Ten years ago when Joe Cox was murdered, regardless of party, we would all have stood up in the House of Commons, given condolences, said we stand square by the promise. But Nigel Farage did not condemn the violence in Belfast, he said, this is going to happen. This is going to happen unless you deal with it. "
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