Summary
Overview
Andy Burnham has won a decisive by-election victory in Makerfield with 55% of the vote, defeating Reform UK by 20 points in what was considered prime Reform territory. This stunning result, which bucked national trends and increased Labour's vote share by 10 points, has raised serious questions about Keir Starmer's future as Prime Minister. The victory demonstrated a potential pathway to defeating Reform and has intensified speculation that Burnham could replace Starmer as Labour leader and PM, possibly by the party conference in late September. Meanwhile, Conservative victories in Scottish by-elections and debates over energy policy add further complexity to Britain's volatile political landscape.
Burnham's Historic By-Election Victory
Andy Burnham secured a commanding victory in Makerfield with nearly 25,000 votes and 55% of the ballot, winning by a 20-point margin in a constituency where Reform had led Labour by 20 points in recent local elections. The result increased Labour's vote share by 10 points while the national trend saw Labour decline by 18-19 points in other by-elections. Burnham effectively wiped out the Greens, Liberal Democrats, and Conservatives, and even a combined Reform-Restore vote wouldn't have beaten him, demonstrating his unique appeal beyond traditional party lines.
- Burnham won with 55% of votes (nearly 25,000) in a constituency that voted two-thirds for Brexit
- He increased Labour's vote share by 10 points while national trend showed Labour down 18-19 points elsewhere
- Reform was 20 points ahead of Labour in local elections just weeks earlier but lost by 20 points
- Greens and Lib Dems got about 1%, Conservatives about 2%, all losing deposits
" Labour have won the crucial by-election in Makerfield and they have won it big. Nearly 25,000 votes for Andy Burnham, 55% of all ballots cast. "
" It was in effect Andy Burnham's application to the Labour Party to oust Keir Starmer and put him into Downing Street instead. "
Historical Significance and Voter Turnout
The Makerfield result achieved rare historical distinctions that underscore its exceptional nature. The increase in voter turnout from general election to by-election represented the biggest differential since 1958, when Mark Bonham Carter won for the Liberals in Torrington. For a by-election candidate standing for the party of government to increase vote share on this scale, one must look back to 1966 when Labour's Kevin McNamara won in Hull, defying the normal pattern of lower turnout and anti-government protest votes.
- Largest differential turnout increase from general election to by-election since Torrington 1958
- First comparable rise in numbers for governing party by-election candidate since Hull 1966
- Bucked two by-election norms: usually lower turnout and anti-government voting
- Burnham drove out people who didn't vote in the last election
📚 7 more sections below
Sign up to unlock the complete summary with all insights, key points, and quotes
Get this summary + all future The Rest Is Politics episodes in your inbox
100% Free • Unsubscribe Anytime
Sign up now and we'll send you the complete summary of this episode, plus get notified when new The Rest Is Politics episodes are released—delivered straight to your inbox within minutes.