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The Rest Is Politics
The Rest Is Politics

562. The Right’s War With Itself and Burnham’s Prisons Challenge

August 12, 2026 • 1h 6m

Summary

⏱️ 9 min read

Overview

In this episode, Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell examine the existential crisis facing Britain's Conservative Party as it battles Reform UK and smaller right-wing factions for survival. They discuss the strategic choices facing party leader Kemi Badenoch, analyze Andy Burnham's first major challenge with prison capacity, explore Abdul El-Sayed's surprising Democratic primary victory in Michigan, and address the economic catastrophe unfolding on Germany's Rhine River due to climate change.

The Conservative Party's Existential Crisis and the Battle on the Right

The Conservative Party faces its worst crisis in modern history, having suffered a devastating electoral defeat and now trailing Reform UK in polls. Stewart and Campbell debate whether the party should chase Reform voters or pivot to the center to capture floating voters. They explore parallels with the collapse of center-right parties across Europe and question whether the Conservatives face terminal decline or temporary setback, with Badenoch's decision to move rightward potentially alienating a crucial centrist constituency.

  • Two years after their worst defeat in modern history, Conservatives have been projected to drop below 100 seats with Reform significantly ahead
  • The Conservative Party came fifth in the Manchester mayoral election with just 7.7% of the vote in what was once a competitive area
  • Kemi Badenoch is chasing Reform voters rather than reaching for a substantial center-ground constituency of floating voters
  • Reform has lost about six points in favorability over 12 months and now has the worst favorability of all major parties
  • Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain party, though polling around 4%, performed better than expected in real votes and damaged Reform
" We spend an enormous amount of time asking what's happening to Labour, but I wonder if the stranger story in British politics isn't what's happening to the right. "
" This is a party in existential crisis. The Tories came fifth, fifth in the election, 7.7% of the vote. "
" She is not really very interested in that. Where she gets passionate is when she starts talking about left-wing ideologues, freedoms under threat, the radical left undermining our culture. "

The Toxic Nature of Right-Wing Politics and Leadership Choices

Campbell and Stewart examine the increasingly nasty tone of right-wing politics, with figures like Zia Yusuf and Rupert Lowe regularly attacking opponents as "morons" and "traitors." They discuss Kemi Badenoch's controversial personnel decisions, including blocking candidates like Gavin Barwell and allowing someone with an anti-Semitic campaign history to advise her commission. The segment explores how chasing the most extreme voters creates a toxic political environment that's ultimately unsustainable for building stable coalitions.

  • Nigel Farage struggles to maintain relationships - Rupert Lowe left Reform to form his own party after falling out with Farage
  • Kemi Badenoch spends significant time online following MAGA-influenced content about 'suicidal empathy' and right-wing talking points
  • Joshua Bonehill-Payne, convicted for an anti-Semitic campaign against Luciana Berger, is now advising Badenoch's commission on culture and integration
  • Badenoch announced 230,000 foreigners would have to leave council homes in six months, which Reform then tried to outbid by saying three months
" There's something about the way they relate to each other. A lot of it is about how he finds it really difficult to maintain relationships. "
" Somebody said, it must be absolutely exhausting to be so angry and so nasty all the time. This is on the back of Zia Youssef calling Ben Wallace a moron because he disagreed with something that Reform was saying. "
" Chasing the Rupert Lowe populist votes isn't just about parties that are nasty at their centre. It's about a very, very toxic voter group. You really do not want to redesign all your policies around that group. "

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