All Podcasts / The Rest Is Politics / 568. MAGA's Plan to Make Britain Look Broken and Iceland's 'Brexit' Moment
The Rest Is Politics
The Rest Is Politics

568. MAGA's Plan to Make Britain Look Broken and Iceland's 'Brexit' Moment

September 02, 2026 • 56m

Summary

⏱️ 7 min read

Overview

This episode analyzes Iceland's referendum rejecting EU membership talks, exploring parallels with Brexit and implications for European unity. The discussion extends to UK-Russia tensions following British support for Ukraine, American perceptions of Britain shaped by MAGA narratives, and the upcoming party conference season. The hosts examine geopolitical fragility, the rise of far-right movements in Europe, and challenges facing middle-power coalitions.

Iceland's EU Referendum Defeat and Brexit Parallels

Iceland voted against opening negotiations for EU membership in a narrow 52-48 result, dealing a blow to European enlargement hopes. The campaign featured disinformation tactics similar to Brexit, including false claims about military conscription and exaggerated financial obligations. Despite Iceland's existing close relationship with the EU through the single market and Schengen, voters rejected even the prospect of talks, with fishing rights and sovereignty concerns dominating the debate.

  • Iceland rejected opening EU membership negotiations in a close referendum result, disappointing hopes for rebooting European enlargement
  • The No campaign modeled tactics on Brexit, including false claims about 50 billion kroner payments and military conscription despite Iceland having no military
  • Iceland already enjoys single market access and Schengen membership without full EU membership
  • The Icelandic Prime Minister's cautious campaign approach may have contributed to the narrow defeat
  • Fishing rights were central to opposition, with 45% of Iceland's exports being fish
" This was a vote which was just about whether to negotiate or talk at all. And you and I are passionate about trying to build up middle powers and bring countries together. "
" The campaign was very, very close to the sort of thing that we had here. So, for example, they absolutely modelled the 350 million pounds from the NHS. They talked about 50 billion Icelandic kroner that we'd have to give to the European Union. "

Rise of European Far-Right and Russian Influence

Marine Le Pen leads polling for France's presidency with every scenario showing her winning the second round, representing a dramatic shift toward far-right governance in a major EU power. Germany's AfD is poised to win state elections, with leaders openly displaying pro-Russian sympathies. These movements share Putin's worldview on nation states, immigration, and cultural values, creating an ideological alliance that threatens European unity.

  • Every poll shows Marine Le Pen winning the French presidency if she reaches the second round
  • Le Pen's party took millions in Russian loans and she has been convicted of fraud
  • AfD leaders openly display pro-Russian sympathies, with one prominent figure owning a Russian Army mug
  • The phrase 'es ist nicht unser Krieg' (it is not our war) dominates AfD messaging on Ukraine
  • Far-right movements share Putin's worldview on nation states, anti-immigration, and traditional family values
" The AFD and the Rassemblement National, they are pro-Russia. They want Russia to win. And the reason for that, and I think maybe this is part of the clue on Trump too, is that they're pro-Russian because actually they share the same worldview. "
" Becoming president of France is a much more powerful position than Maloney becoming prime minister of Italy, because the president of France controls France much more directly in many ways in the prime minister of Italy and is a much bigger player in the European Union. "

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