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The Rest Is Politics
The Rest Is Politics

Why Nuclear War Is More Likely Than You Think (with Carlo Rovelli)

September 24, 2026 • 18m

Summary

⏱️ 7 min read

Overview

Carlo Rovelli, renowned theoretical physicist and author, joins Rory Stewart to discuss the often-overlooked existential threat of nuclear war. Despite seeming unfashionable compared to Cold War-era concerns, Rovelli argues the risk is now higher than ever due to multipolar nuclear powers, AI integration in weapons systems, and declining public awareness. The conversation explores how geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Russia, China, and smaller nuclear states, combined with Europe's rearmament and technological developments, could lead to catastrophic outcomes that policymakers are dangerously ignoring.

The Forgotten Nuclear Threat

Rovelli opens by explaining why nuclear war has become an 'unfashionable' topic despite the risk being objectively higher than during the Cold War. The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Doomsday Clock now stands at 85 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been. This complacency, where nuclear considerations are absent from political discussions about rearmament, represents one of the primary dangers facing humanity today.

  • Nuclear war seems unfashionable compared to 1960s concerns, but this perception is itself the source of the risk
  • The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists concludes the risk is higher now than during the Cold War
  • Political discussions about European rearmament don't include consideration that modern war would be nuclear
" I think that what you just said is the source of the risk. And the reason for me for writing this book about the risk namely it does sound unfashionable, doesn't it? Think of the 60s when there were atomic refuges and things like that. We're over that. And that's exactly the problem because objectively, and I use this word with a lot of caution, but I think it has to be used. The risk is higher than the 60s. "

Four Factors Increasing Nuclear Risk

Rovelli outlines four key factors that make nuclear catastrophe more likely today than during the Cold War. These include public complacency, the shift from two to three nuclear superpowers, the integration of artificial intelligence into weapons systems, and the proliferation of nuclear weapons to smaller states. Each factor compounds the others, creating a more unstable and unpredictable global situation.

  • The shift from two superpowers to three (adding China) fundamentally changes game theory - one power benefits from the other two going to war
  • AI integration creates a dangerous catch-22: not using AI weakens you, but using it increases danger due to unreliability
  • AI systems may make decisions faster than humans in scenarios requiring immediate response, removing human judgment from the chain
  • Multiple smaller nuclear powers now exist including Israel, Pakistan, India, North Korea, Britain, and France
" Game of three is completely different from game of two, Because the game of two is you watch one another and we agree not to go to disaster. Game of three is completely different because there's a complicated thing about trust and there is a clear advantage in everybody having the other two going to work. "
" Governments, top governments are put in a sort of catch-22 because if you don't rely on AI you weaken yourself, if you do you increase the danger, so what do you do? "

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