Summary
Overview
A comprehensive analysis of the Makerfield by-election results, where Andy Burnham won overwhelmingly against Reform UK. Journalists Dan Hodges and Julia Hartley-Brewer debate what this means for British politics, Reform's declining momentum, and whether Burnham can solve Britain's structural problems if he replaces Keir Starmer as Prime Minister.
Andy Burnham's Victory and the Personal Vote
Dan Hodges reports from Makerfield that Andy Burnham won decisively not as a Labour candidate, but through personal popularity. Half the constituency seemed to know him personally, with voters explicitly saying they voted for Andy rather than Labour. The election functioned primarily as a referendum on Keir Starmer, with Burnham's strategy of promising to remove Starmer proving highly effective at mobilizing voters across the political spectrum.
- Burnham won because of personal appeal, not party affiliation - people voted 'for Andy' regardless of their political leanings
- The by-election was primarily a referendum on Keir Starmer, who remains deeply unpopular
- An organized anti-Reform coalition is developing across constituencies
- The left-wing vote consolidated almost entirely behind Burnham, with Greens and Lib Dems barely registering
" Andy Burnham won the by-election because he was Andy Burnham, not because he was Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate. "
Reform's Disappointing Result and Strategic Problems
Despite getting 35% of the vote, Reform UK fell far short of expectations in what should have been fertile territory. Dan Hodges argues the shine is coming off Nigel Farage and Reform, pointing to their decline from 30% in polls last September to 25% now. The party has failed to modernize, professionalize, or address its 'woman problem,' instead becoming increasingly fixated on outflanking the hard right rather than appealing to mainstream voters.
- Reform got 35% but failed to come close to winning in what conventional wisdom saw as a knife-edge contest
- Reform has been in steady decline from 30% in polls last September to 25% now
- Reform's conference turned into a circus rather than showcasing modernization, with controversial figures being celebrated
- The party spent three weeks trying to win over Restore's 7% instead of appealing to the broader electorate
" Reform got a pretty big shellacking here. They didn't even come close. I mean, reform weren't even in the picture when Andy Burnham got across the line. "
" Instead of embracing moving forward and trying to embrace the country as a whole, they're instead adopting a policy of trying to neutralize that faction and that to an extent is kind of what we saw replicated as well in Makerfield. "
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