Freakonomics Radio
Freakonomics Radio

653. Does Horse Racing Have a Future?

November 14, 2025 • 1h 1m

Summary

⏱️ 9 min read

Overview

A deep dive into the world of thoroughbred horse racing through the lens of the Keeneland September yearling sale in Lexington, Kentucky. The episode explores the economics, traditions, and uncertain future of horse racing, featuring sellers like Hinkle Farms, buyers investing millions in unproven horses, and industry insiders discussing how gambling's evolution threatens this once-dominant American sport.

The Keeneland Auction Complex and September Sale

Keeneland hosts the world's biggest and highest-quality yearling sale, where approximately 40% of major U.S. race winners were purchased. The complex features extensive facilities with 46 barns, and this year's sale included about 4,700 yearlings in the catalog. Senior Director Cormac Branick explains how the sale operates, from farm inspections to catalog preparation, with books organized by price tier descending from median prices of $450,000 on day one to much lower amounts by the final days.

  • Keeneland is the biggest yearling sale in the world, where 40% of winners of major U.S. races were bought
  • This year's sale featured about 4,700 yearlings entered in the catalog
  • The Keeneland team travels to about 410 farms to inspect 3,200+ yearlings before the sale
  • Sale is organized into 12 days with median prices dropping 50% per book, from $450,000 on day one to lower amounts
  • About two-thirds of buyers are domestic, with Ireland, Japan, and Saudi Arabia as top international spending countries
" Thoroughbreds in particular, they're kind, they're trusting, they're just magnetic in every which way, and they give back more than you get from them. "
" It's like panning for gold. You just keep sifting and sifting until something sticks. "

Hinkle Farms and the Star Filly

Ann Archer Hinkle represents the fourth generation of her family running Hinkle Farms, which breeds horses rather than simply reselling them. Their star offering at this year's sale is a filly sired by Not This Time, a stallion whose stud fee has skyrocketed from $15,000 to $175,000 due to his offspring's success. Hinkle Farms hopes for seven figures but budgets conservatively, as breeding horses requires enormous capital investment including over a million dollars annually just in stud fees.

  • Hinkle Farms has been breeding horses since the 1960s, raising them from conception through the yearling sale
  • Their star filly is sired by Not This Time, a hot stallion experiencing incredible success with his offspring
  • Not This Time's stud fee increased from $15,000 to $175,000 per live foal as his offspring started winning races
  • Hinkle Farms' stud fees alone exceed one million dollars annually, making capital requirements enormous
" The last three weeks have just been, it's like fantasy land. I can't even keep up with all the horses that are running well. "

📚 6 more sections below

Sign up to unlock the complete summary with all insights, key points, and quotes