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666. This Is How Progress Happens

March 06, 2026 • 53m

Summary

⏱️ 9 min read

Overview

Nobel laureate Joel Mokyr discusses how cultural shifts and technological progress have driven economic growth over centuries. He challenges conventional GDP measurements, emphasizes the critical role of elite innovators, and warns about institutional deterioration threatening future progress while remaining cautiously optimistic about technology's potential to address global challenges.

The Paradox of Progress and Human Habituation

Mokyr opens by addressing humanity's tendency to quickly take progress for granted, arguing that despite our complaints, modern life is incomparably better than the past. He emphasizes his mission as an economic historian is to remind people how fortunate they are, noting that the "good old days" were actually terrible by today's standards. His recent Nobel Prize recognized his work identifying the prerequisites for sustained technological growth.

  • Mokyr's mission is to tell people how good they have it compared to historical standards
  • Won the Nobel Prize for identifying prerequisites for sustained growth through technological progress
  • Economic progress is driven by approximately 2-3% of the labor force
  • These innovators change culture drastically, making technological progress fundamentally cultural
" The good old days may have been old, but they weren't good. They were terrible. "
" It is quite clear that progress is driven by a very small proportion of the population. I would say something around maybe two, two and a half, maybe three percent of the labor force are driving all the progress. "

Culture Over Institutions: A Contrarian Economic View

Mokyr explains his controversial argument that culture, not just institutions, drives technological progress—a view that was once considered heretical in economics. He discusses how this perspective differs from recent Nobel winners Acemoglu and Robinson, while maintaining that culture and institutions have bidirectional influence. His personal experience growing up in post-war Israel illustrates how cultural attitudes toward innovation and failure create economic miracles.

  • Being accused of considering culture made you a 'closet sociologist'—the worst insult in economics 50 years ago
  • Culture and institutions must be mutually consistent, with causality running both directions
  • Israel's transformation from poverty in the 1950s to high-tech success demonstrates cultural factors at work
  • Israel's culture allows failure and has 'no box' for thinking outside of
  • Institutional deterioration in Israel threatens to undermine its economic miracle
" When I was a graduate student and you mentioned the word culture, you would be accused of being a closet sociologist, and that's the worst insult you could come up with. "
" It is not that in Israel people think outside the box. It is that there is no box. "

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